With the league coming to an early end, I thought I’d look back at the predictions I made for the last stage of the league. I’m happy to say that out of all 74 games played since then I correctly predicted 51 of them. That’s just shy of 70%. Here is how the league would’ve finished according to this prediction. I’ve also had a look at how play offs could have ended.
The original prediction post explains how I came to the conclusion of whether a team will win or lose and decide if it will be in regular or over time. You can find that article here.
10th Place – Fife Flyers, on track for 36 points
Predicted 10th, 32 Points
Original Prediction
“Things don’t seem to change for Fife in their last 12 games however they do pick two wins before the end of season with a last game win over Coventry to end the season.”
Picking up two extra wins was a bonus for Fife who remained eight points away from the Playoff positions.
9th Place – Dundee Stars – on track for 41 Points
Predicted 9th, 42 points
Original Prediction
“Dundee didn’t surprise me either only picking up 8 points but with three games against Sheffield and two against Cardiff, points would come few and far between.”
Dundee might have been one of the most disappointed teams as the opportunity to climb up a spot was there, however a loss to Fife and Glasgow proved to be too costly.
8th Place – Manchester Storm – on track for 44 Points
Predicted 8th, 44 Points
Original Prediction
“Manchester squeezed into the playoff positions by two points. If Dundee had a slightly easier fixture list, we could’ve seen Manchester fall out of the top eight.”
Perhaps my favourite part of these predictions was predicting Manchester’s away trip to Belfast. Although most of their fans wouldn’t be too happy with how I predicted the rest of their season. At least you still made the first playoff round storm fans!
7th Place – Glasgow Clan – on track for 47 Points
Predicted 7th, 47 Points
Original Prediction
“Glasgow started level on points with Manchester and managed to extend their gap by three over them. However, they were just 6 points behind Guildford before the calculated games and ended up being 16 points behind. The three losses to Guildford did not help at all.”
Not a lot to talk about with Clan, everything running on course. They would pick up a few points in their last couple games to put a few smiles on faces come the end of a fairly average season.
6th Place – Guildford Flames – on track for 63 Points
Predicted 6th, 63 Points
Original Prediction
“When looking at the fixture list I thought Guildford had it pretty tough with 8 games in a row against top four opposition. However still pick up 10 wins out of 15. Despite their good run of results, they remained in 6th place.”
Guildford had a run in most clubs would hate to have but were very impressive beating Cardiff, Belfast, Nottingham and Sheffield. Hopefully we see a similar side again next season.
5th Place – Nottingham Panthers – on track for 66 Points
Predicted 5th, 65 Points
Original Prediction
“Nottingham will be disappointed as they fell to fifth place in the table. They didn’t play bad earning just over a point per game however the teams above them all did better.”
After making the original prediction people had Nottingham winning the league one week to then finishing 5th and every position in the league. With a few adjustments to their team they could be at the top end of the table once again.
4th Place – Sheffield Steelers – on track for 69 Points
Predicted 1st, 73 Points
Original Prediction
“Sheffield played well enough picking up 16 out of 24 points and can celebrate picking up the league title despite losing to Cardiff on the final game of the season.”
Well that aged well…
In fairness, they did win the Challenge Cup and maybe could afford to not win the league. Despite ignoring defending and just trying to outscore every team they would be unable to hold it for the whole season and end up dropping next to the Panthers.
3rd Place – Coventry Blaze – on Track for 70 Points
Predicted 4th, 69 Points
Original Prediction
“Coventry look like they could enjoy the next 14 games as they picked up 22 out of a possible 28 points. They only lost two games in regular time and with one of those against Fife, they will be disappointed they couldn’t get into third.”
I guess they won’t be so disappointed now. A meteoric rise up the table as they miss out on second by just one regular season win. Seems to be a common occurrence with the men in teal.
2nd Place – Belfast Giants – on track for 70 Points
Predicted 3rd, 69 Points
Original Prediction
“Belfast held onto third by the skin of their teeth. 1 regulation win kept them above Coventry. Similar to Nottingham they played well winning 9 out of their 14 games but needed to do better to catch those in front.”
The Giants took second spot after winning eight of their last ten games. Coventry would miss out on second despite beating them on the final game of the season. A weird season for the Giants but one they will look back on as fairly successful as they showed competitiveness in the CHL and a second-place finish in the league.
1st Place – Cardiff Devils – on track for 72 Points
Predicted 2nd, 72 Points
Original Prediction
“Cardiff failed to catch Sheffield and failed to capitalise on their four games in hand. Overall Cardiff picked up the joint second amount of points (tied with Guildford and behind Coventry) but lost games to Dundee and Glasgow which cost them the league.”
Despite the Devils losing 6 games in their end of season run in, it would be enough due to Sheffield falling off the pace. The Devils would take it to the last game of the season after losing to the Giants at home however even if they were to lose to the Steelers would still finish top on regular season wins.
Play Off weekend qualifiers
Game 1: Cardiff Devils vs Manchester Storm
In my opinion the easiest tie as it is meant to be the top vs the bottom. Of course Manchester will cause problems with the way they play however only one team going to Nottingham. Devils win.
Game 2: Belfast Giants vs Glasgow Clan
Again, another tie which should follow the script. A Giants win against the Clan. Another season without the Clan at playoffs but I feel Belfast are just too strong
Game 3: Coventry Blaze vs Guildford Flames
What a tie this would be. Guildford with their speed against Coventry and their clinical finishing. CJ Motte has revolutionised Coventry and i feel they will just edge the tie and be on their way to Nottingham.
Game 4: Sheffield Steelers vs Nottingham Panthers
For me the Steelers win this. We’ve seen they show up for big games and making sure Nottingham don’t make playoff final weekend is right up there for Steelers fans.
Playoff Semi Finals
Game 1: Cardiff Devils vs Sheffield Steelers
The toughest game to call by far. Devils top of the league, Sheffield the Challenge Cup. Who would progress? Due to the Steelers beating Nottingham, they may have treated that game as the final before the final. That’s the only thing I really have to separate those two Sides. Cardiff make it to the final.
Game 2: Belfast Giants vs Coventry Blaze
For me, Coventry would get the win. Difficult to break down and difficult to stop scoring and Belfast would have to play an almost perfect game of hockey to defeat them. Coventry head to the final.
Play Off Final
Cardiff Devils vs Coventry Blaze
In terms of entertaining finals then there’s probably no two better teams to play each other in terms of play style. Guaranteed goals, great saves, fast paced and both teams have amazing players who could win the match should the show up.
Coventry for me would edge it. They would deserve a trophy for their efforts this season and I’m sure their fans would enjoy a playoff final weekend with a trophy at the end of it.
Down The Bay 
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